With just one game in each conference separating us from a Super Bowl matchup (one game, but two weeks. Which is fine, people take mental health days when their fish dies, these guys can take a week off after playing professional football since August), the time is now to be *heavy* amounts of money and win, so that you can bet even *heavier* amounts of money on things like "What color will the Gatorade be?" and "Over 1.5 commercials that make most people say 'I don't think you can do stuff like that anymore'" (Blue and Over, but oddly enough due to two instances of the Frito Bandito making a return.) But in order to make big money, you must have rock solid picks.
That's where I come in...3-1 last week, so the ones and ones of people who used my picks last week are in the black right now. Let's take a look at both games and how best to reinvest that cash.

 

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

Bucs vs Packers, 3:05pm, FOX

Green Bay -3.5, O/U 51

Let's start with an exciting matchup between two exciting teams both helmed by QBs who are probably very difficult to be friends with. Brady is making up for lost time by matching up with the NFCs best QBs of the past decade plus (Rodgers, Brees, Henicke) and hoping his "wrong conference" title game goes better than Joe Montana's back in '94. But for as much press is given to the idea of "QB MATCHUPS"...they don't really match up. At all. It's kind of like how people stress so much about meeting their significant other's parents but...does it really matter if her dad thinks you're sexy? It doesn't. Just like a QB matchup doesn't matter, but Offense vs Defense sure does. Both teams can score, both teams can let the other team score, and the turnover rate for these two teams is nearly identical (TB +8, GB +7). But you come to this NJ classic rock radio station website for *deep* insight, so here's a stat for you: Of Tampa's 25 total takeaways, 10 are forced fumbles compared to Green Bay's 7. The fumble rate spikes in extremely cold temperatures. The game is in Green Bay. It will be cold. Let's just go with that right?

THE PICKS: TB +3.5, O 51

 

Bills vs Chiefs, 6:40pm, CBS

KC -3, O/U 54

Ooh baby, now here's a juicy one. Obviously the big question is will Patrick Mahomes play? It was encouraging to see an NFL team treating traumatic brain injury seriously for once but not *immediately* putting their clearly concussed QB back into an important game. I fully expected him to pull a vintage Russell Wilson "stop by the medical tent, say hi to the guys, chug some miracle concussion water, back under center for the next snap" but the Chiefs took it seriously. That being said...he's totally playing Sunday. Its the AFC Title game and every report from both the team and the NFL's favorite analysts is both A. extremely optimistic and B. completely free of the word "concussion." He's totally playing. In all seriousness, I do hope that the Chiefs do right by Mahomes long term and only play him if he's ready to play. Nobody wants to see Chad Henne vs Josh Allen but (hopefully) even less people want to see Pat Mahomes struggle for the rest of his life. The game itself is going to be a good one...these are two very good, very complete teams and it should be a very good complete game. In such a case, I'm always a big fan of teams getting points because it should be close. I'd *probably* buy a half point to make a FG differential a cover, but back the Bills all the same.

THE PICKS: Buffalo +3, O 54

 

 

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