Two days of sun and mild temps, then active weather returns to NJ

The Bottom Line

There is a lot to love about this weather forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be perfectly pleasant, mild weather days, with most temperatures in the 60s.

And then as we spring into Spring starting on Thursday, our weather turns more active again. Thursday evening will be our next opportunity for much-needed rain, followed by a blustery cooldown on Friday. There are several more chances of rain coming up through the rest of March, hopefully putting a dent in our still-concerning drought status.

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Tuesday

Tuesday morning is frosty and chilly — actually, our coldest morning in nine days. Temperatures are starting the day in the 20s and 30s. You will definitely need a jacket or sweater early on.

Don't worry! Once the sun gets high enough in the sky, thermometers should jump up quickly around mid-morning. And we should make it into the lower 60s Tuesday afternoon — that is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Skies will be sunny and blue. Weather stays dry. And the northwesterly breeze will be noticeable, but not overpowering. Again, by all counts, a very nice March day.

Tuesday night will stay clear and temps turn cool again. Expect lows around 40 degrees by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

If you liked Tuesday's weather, odds are good you will like Wednesday too. Some high clouds will creep in, but temperatures will creep a few degrees warmer still.

Wednesday morning will be a continuation of blue sky and bright sunshine, before some clouds filter that sunshine through the afternoon. We will stay completely dry though.

Most of New Jersey will see high temperatures push into the mid 60s Wednesday. But there is one big exception: The Jersey Shore. With the wind direction shifting to southeasterly, blowing off the chilly ocean water, air temperatures will be heavily affected too. So coastal communities will likely get stuck closer to 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday

The Vernal Equinox — the official start of Spring — will arrive 5:01 EDT Thursday. And most of Thursday will be fine.

Skies will turn mostly cloudy. But high temperatures will still reach the 60s for most. Again, except for the immediate coast.

Eventually, a strong cold front will sweep a round of showers and thunderstorms from west to east across the state. I do not see any raindrops impacting NJ before 4 or 5 p.m. — the wet weather is really centered on the Thursday evening hours.

While the downpour and severe weather potential will not be as high as it was on Sunday, there could be pockets of heavy wind and rain to watch for Thursday.

There is one forecast model — the GFS — that depicts a period of accumulating snow on the backside of this storm system, early Friday morning. But I do not buy it. Wet snowflakes, sure. But most of the precipitation will shut off before cold air arrives. I am really not worried about accumulations or wintry travel impacts.

Friday

Behind the front, we should dry out by Friday morning. And with a strong wind, temperatures will take a tumble.

Gusts may approach 50 mph during the day Friday, which is enough to cause minor roof and tree damage, driving difficulties, and scattered power outages.

Alongside that chilly wind, high temperatures will get stuck around the upper 40s on Friday. South Jersey may touch 50 degrees. In any case, those temperatures are decidedly below normal for late March.

At least Friday will be bright and sunny again.

The Weekend & Beyond

The first weekend of Spring will feature a mixed bag of weather for New Jersey. Seasonable-ish temperatures, mixed cloud cover, and maybe a few raindrops.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy, with improving high temperatures reaching into the mid-upper 50s. Par for the course for late March. The wind will lighten up considerably compared to Friday. However, there could be a few sprinkles around — nothing heavy, prolonged, or organized though.

Sunday will be the drier and brighter day of the weekend — let's call it partly to mostly sunny. But temperatures will trend cooler, only reaching the lower 50s.

Another storm system looms for Monday. Precipitation type will largely depend on timing. If any part of that storm arrives before sunrise or departs after sunset, it might be cold enough for some snow or wintry mix to fall in New Jersey. Again, not ringing alarm bells here, as it does look mainly wet. Just putting the possibility out there.

That kind of setup will happen approximately every other day through the rest of March. A quick impulse delivers a burst of mainly snow, although we will have to be vigilant for thunder and wintry weather potential.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.