The Stay NJ fight isn’t over — here’s what happens by July 1

Something interesting happened today in my analytics.

A piece I wrote five days ago — the one where I read through your 561 comments on the Stay NJ cuts — suddenly surged back to the top of my traffic board. Number one for the day. More pageviews than anything I published this week, including five new pieces.

I noticed that. And I think I know what it means.

People are still searching for this. They are still worried. They are still watching. The Stay NJ fight is not over, and New Jersey seniors know it. So let me tell you exactly where this stands and what is about to happen between now and July 1.

What we already know

Gov. Mikie Sherrill's proposed budget cuts the maximum Stay NJ benefit from $6,500 to $4,000 and drops the income eligibility threshold from $500,000 to $250,000. Roughly 10% of the 438,000 seniors who qualified lose the benefit entirely. The $250 ANCHOR bonus for senior homeowners also disappears under her proposal.

The comments you left told a clear and consistent story. Cut the income cap if you have to, but leave the $6,500 benefit alone. That was not a partisan position. That was a New Jersey position — and it crossed every political line in that thread.

The budget is not law yet. That is the most important thing to understand right now. What Sherrill proposed in March is a starting point, not a finish line.

SEE ALSO: New Jersey property taxes: a generational broken promise

Here is the timeline you need to know

Now through late May — Legislative budget hearings. The Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee has hearings scheduled for May 19th. This is where lawmakers question the administration's numbers line by line and where senators on both sides of the aisle make their positions public. These hearings matter. They are where the pushback gets formalized.

Late May through mid-June — The Legislature writes its own version. The Assembly and Senate do not simply accept or reject the governor's budget. They draft their own. This is the stage where Stay NJ cuts can be restored — if enough lawmakers decide the political cost of cutting senior property tax relief is higher than the fiscal cost of keeping it. Republican state Sen. Declan O'Scanlon, R-Monmouth, has already said publicly that cutting property tax relief is the last thing that should happen. He oversees the state budget. That is not a small voice.

Mid to late June — Negotiation between the Legislature and the Governor. This is the room where it actually gets decided. The Legislature sends its version. The Governor responds. Staff negotiates the gaps. In a normal budget year, this goes down to the wire.

June 30 — The deadline. The Constitution requires a balanced budget to be signed by July 1. If there is no signed budget, the government stops writing checks. That is the leverage point. Both sides know it. Neither side wants to be the reason it happens.

What could save the $6,500 benefit?

The math is not impossible. The gap between keeping the $6,500 benefit and cutting it to $4,000 is roughly $300 million annually. In a $60.7 billion budget, that is less than one-half of one percent. Lawmakers who want to restore it need to find that money somewhere else — or convince the Governor that the political damage of cutting senior property tax relief outweighs the savings.

O'Scanlon is pushing. AARP New Jersey is pushing. The 561 comments you left are sitting on a website that Trenton reads. The Legislature's version of the budget is the next battleground, and it has not been written yet.

SEE ALSO: You left 561 comments on the StayNJ piece — here's what you said 

What you can still do right now

JP Thompson said it plainly in the comments: call and email. Find your state senator and assembly members at the New Jersey Legislature website and tell them directly that you want the $6,500 benefit preserved. The May 19th hearing is one week away. That is the moment when your voice has the most leverage before the legislative version gets locked in.

The window is still open. It closes June 30th.

I will keep watching this and keep writing about it. The traffic surge today told me you are watching too. Good. Keep watching. Keep calling. The good guys won in Diamond Beach and Andover Township last week. There is no reason they cannot win in Trenton, too.