The Bottom Line

If you were to graph our temperature trend this week, it would look like the letter U. We started the week mild, and are now on the downswing. Wednesday will be the bottom of the barrel, likely our coldest day since March. But the January-like chill will be relatively brief, as another warmup kicks in through next weekend.

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Tuesday

A weak disturbance will ride through New Jersey's atmosphere Tuesday, which will have three effects on our weather:

1.) Deliver clouds and a few showers. If the sky can squeeze out a few raindrops (difficult given our dry air), they'll be light and scattered. There is a chance for some light snow in North Jersey today — let's define that as north of Interstate 78. But again, light and scattered.

2.) Kick up a brisk northwesterly wind late-day. Wind gusts over 20 mph are likely through Tuesday evening.

3.) Drive in even colder air. High temperatures will only reach the upper 40s, about 5 degrees below seasonal normals. And then it gets even colder Tuesday night.

Wednesday

An early morning freeze is likely for almost everyone in the state. The only exception is the immediate coast, within a mile or two of the 56-degree ocean. And the morning low temperature around 30 doesn't even tell the whole story. As the overnight breeze continues, the wind chill (or "feels like" or "apparent temperature") will bite, as low as the lower 20s. You might find yourself reaching for a heavier coat, hat, and gloves Wednesday!

It will look and feel like a pleasant January day. Bright sunshine will meet cold temperatures, only topping out around 40. That's it.

Thursday

Another widespread freeze is likely for Thursday morning, although with less wind (and negligible wind chill) this time around. The rest of Thursday looks much better, as highs pop into the lower 50s under a mix of sun and clouds. The day looks dry.

Friday

The warmup continues, as highs push above-normal into the upper 50s. South Jersey might even top 60 degrees to close out the workweek. Skies will be partly sunny and still dry.

The Extended Forecast

Widespread 60s return to NJ thermometers for the upcoming weekend. Both days look quite pleasant, with predominantly sunshine on Saturday and increasing clouds on Sunday.

Our next storm system and chance of rain is still expected to arrive on Monday.

And even though that cold front may knock back temperatures somewhat, I still favor above-normal temperatures through the Thanksgiving holiday next week. But the rain/snow/wind outlook for next week (> 7 days) remains hazy and uncertain.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.