Still steamy Thursday, but drier air and weather is coming
I have to hang my tail between my legs this morning, because I am guilty of one of meteorology's greatest sins: Wishcasting. As you may have heard or read on Wednesday, I promoted an "excellent, sunny, dry, and warm" weekend. Ugh, not so much. We are going to find ourselves sandwiched between a storm system to the south and a protective dome of high pressure to the north — which looks like a more precarious situation than I had been thinking. I'm still optimistic the weekend will be dry. But skies will not be sunny, and temperatures may be a bit cooler than you'd like (especially along the coast).
All right, let's rewind to Thursday. Overnight rain is wrapping up. While you may have to deal with wet roads and a few sprinkles for the Thursday morning commute, you'll also catch some breaks of sun. You'll also feel some steamy conditions out there, as humidity remains high and early morning temperatures are around 70 degrees. High temps will push into the summerlike lower to mid 80s.
A weak cold front will slowly pass through New Jersey Thursday afternoon. That boundary may fire off a few spotty showers or even a thunderstorm at some point — but models suggest any rainfall later Thursday will be very isolated.
Behind the front, humidity will dial back a bit Thursday night. The air won't dry out to the fall-like level we enjoyed on Monday and Tuesday, but it will be less stifling. A blanket of cloud cover will keep temperatures on the mild side overnight, bottoming out in the above-normal mid 60s.
Friday's forecast is tricky. I've flipped to a mostly cloudy outlook. It's definitely going to be cooler and more comfortable than Thursday, with best-guess high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s (coast) to lower 80s (inland).
Additionally, the NAM model in particular suggests some showers could bubble up from the south on Friday. Even though there's no model consensus, and I'm hoping it won't be a damp day overall, I have opted to include this shower chance in my forecast too.
Again, the bottom line for the weekend remains the same: New Jersey will be dry. However, as we potentially pick up a light on-shore flow (winds blowing from the ocean to the land), skies will be greyer and temperatures will be cooler along the Jersey Shore.
I'm now calling Saturday partly sunny. High temps will be similar to Friday, in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Sunday might be a degree or two cooler, as skies become mostly cloudy.
Our next storm system and next chance of rain looks to arrive late Sunday evening (say, 11 p.m.) at the earliest. (OK, so technically not a totally dry weekend — but really, what's an hour between friends?) A few rounds of rain showers will accompany higher humidity to start the new workweek on Monday.
Steadier rain looks to arrive Monday night. In fact, Tuesday looks like a pretty wet day overall — maybe a total washout? Actually, most of next week looks a bit damp and unsettled.