Possible ‘flash freeze’ and record low temps for NJ overnight
Much of New Jersey experienced the first flakes of the 2019-20 season on Tuesday. Little to no accumulation or travel issues, so it's just been some pretty, conversational snow.
The flakes are almost done flying now. By about 5 p.m. Tuesday, the final band of precipitation should exit the Jersey Shore. That means we'll have a mostly problem-free evening commute. There could be a few very isolated slippery spots, but that's it.
Now our forecast can focus on the very cold, very dry arctic air mass that will envelop New Jersey over the next 36 to 48 hours. #BundleUp
Temperatures have already dropped 20+ degrees from Tuesday morning through the afternoon, as expected. It will get even colder as Tuesday night descends, which raises three meteorological concerns in particular:
1.) Flash freeze... Definitely a scary-sounding term! It just means that temperatures will continue falling rapidly below freezing, which could lead to puddles, water droplets, and wet surfaces icing over. Just watch your step for slippery spots, through both late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.
2.) Record low temperatures... According to my back-of-the-envelope research, Wednesday's record low temperatures are 24 at Newark (set in 1986), 22 at New Brunswick (set 1911), and 22 at Atlantic City (last set in 2001). My forecast calls for low temperatures of 22 at Newark, 19 at New Brunswick, and 19 at Atlantic City.
3.) Wind chill... As you know, during cold weather months, the thermometer does not tell the entire story. I often call it the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature. The wind chill is technically a mathematically equation that estimates the effect that cold air and wind have on human body heat loss. Even a little breeze will push our wind chill into the single digits overnight. As if you needed more reason to bundle up tightly, with heavy coat, hat, and gloves!
High temperatures on Wednesday will only reach about 30 to 35 degrees across the state. That means part of New Jersey will be stuck below freezing all day. That's also almost 25 degrees below normal for mid-November. Heck, it would even be below-normal in the dead of winter (mid-January).
To be clear though, this does not qualify as dangerous cold. But it is unseasonable and uncomfortable, for sure!
Conditions will rebound on Thursday, as thermometers rise into the 40s. 50 degrees is a possibility for Friday. Then we face another cooldown and a close call with a coastal this weekend.
For more details on this chilly November weather forecast, please see my complete Tuesday AM weather blog:
Stay warm and stay safe! Next weather blog will come your way dark n' early Wednesday morning, around 6 a.m.