NJ’s 3-part Halloween forecast: Early rain, then drier and windy, then thunderstorms
Happy Halloween! There are no changes to report in New Jersey's Halloween forecast. A warm front will be followed by a cold front, bookending the holiday with rain. Even though the day will be far from a total washout, it will be windy. Therefore not an incredibly pleasant day, but just good enough for trick-or-treating.
Here is the quick and simple, 3-part breakdown of the day:
Part 1... Scattered light to moderate rain will pass through the state throughout Thursday morning (Noon). Generally wet.
Part 2... Rain becomes much more widely scattered and even isolated for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Windy (gusts to 30+ mph), but mainly dry (especially central and southern NJ). Fairly warm and humid, with widespread high temperatures around 70 degrees.
Part 3... Do not ignore the most impactful weather of the day, arriving Thursday night. A line of thunderstorms will drive heavy rain and strong winds (gusts to 50+ mph) through the state. Those fierce storms will arrive between about 10 p.m. and 2 a.m.
Rain should end completely across the Garden State by 5 a.m. Friday morning. Temperatures and dew points will fall rapidly behind the cold front. But I'm admittedly undecided about just how cold it will get. The NAM favors low temps near 40. The GFS is closer to 45 to 50, which is the option I'm leaning toward.
In addition, skies will clear quickly to sunshine on Friday. It will be a bright, but cool and blustery start to November. Wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph are likely.
One technicality, which happens often in the colder weather months: I can't really call our Friday afternoon temperature the "high temp" for the calendar day, as it will likely be warmer at Midnight than later on. So I'll just say afternoon temperatures will likely settle in the mid 50s. (Again, that is very much give or take.)
We dive into the weekend with one of the coldest mornings of the season so far on Saturday. I believe widespread 30s are a good possibility, raising the risk for a widespread frost. It will be a mostly sunny and dry day, with light winds and highs in the mid 50s — about 5 degrees below normal for early November.
With a shift to northwesterly winds, Sunday looks to be the cooler day of the weekend. Highs will only reach the lower 50s, closing to 10 days below seasonal norms.
No weather problems for Monday either. Increasing clouds will accompany high temperatures in the mid 50s.
We should see a return to seasonable 60s by midweek. While there could be a shower or two around, the forecast through the first ten days of November looks mighty dry.
Have fun, be safe, and stay dry out there trick-or-treating tonight!