NJ falls into autumn on a very warm note, some rain Monday night
Happy Autumnal Equinox, New Jersey! We officially "fell" into fall at 3:50 a.m. Don't worry, the start of summer is only 271 days away!
This first day of fall is not going to feel very autumnal. Monday morning is starting with sticky 60s and some patchy fog (mainly in North Jersey, where temperatures have cooled to meet the dew point). Monday afternoon's high temperatures will be similar to Sunday's, generally in the mid to upper 80s.
Although you might catch some early sunshine, clouds will increase steadily for the rest of the day. It will feel humid and breezy, with a southwesterly wind holding at 10 to 20 mph.
On this summerlike day, you might be tempted to head to the beach. Go for it! Just stay out of the water — a high risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf continues for another day. 4 to 5 foot ocean waves are forecast.
As a cold front sinks toward New Jersey Monday, an isolated shower will be possible in North Jersey starting around 4 p.m. Then, a round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is expected into Monday evening and Monday night. So, just to be clear, most of the state will stay dry during the day.
We could really use a good soaking right about now. Our weather has suddenly turned inactive and dry over the last 30 to 60 days. Not a dire drought concern yet, but we are heading toward the driest time of the year (a.k.a. winter). Unfortunately, Monday night's cold front is not going to give us a thorough drenching. If the rain doesn't fizzle out, rainfall totals will end up between 0.10" and 0.25". Could be as low as zero (yes, there is a chance southern NJ stays dry). Local amounts up to about an inch, if it really pours.
By the time you wake up Tuesday, the rain will be long gone and skies will be clearing to sunshine. It's going to be a cooler and more comfortable day, thanks to a refreshing northwesterly breeze. High temperatures will be limited to the mid 70s or so.
Wednesday looks about the same. Sunny and mid 70s. Dry and seasonable.
On Thursday, a wind shift will facilitate a warmup back to 80+ degrees for most of the Garden State. Some late clouds are expected to build in. And I have included a shower in the forecast at some point too. Model guidance have been flip-flopping between a few showers and a dry day, and I feel the potential raindrops are worth a mention.
The weather waffling will continue into the weekend — I'm seeing 70s for Friday, 80s on Saturday, and 70s on Sunday. The forecast for next weekend is not perfect, with some showers around both early and late on Saturday and again on Sunday. We'll nail down the timeline and impacts further as the week presses on — but yet again, I don't see a drought-busting drencher.
One more note, as we continue to watch an active tropical Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Jerry will fly-by Bermuda on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Karen has prompted tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for Tuesday. And Tropical Depression 13 has just ejected off the coast of Africa — the latest forecast shows an out-to-sea trajectory, but there's still lots of time for that to change. If TD 13 intensifies into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Lorenzo.