Monday NJ weather: Nor’easter winds down, with some showers and wind

The Bottom Line

What a wild night! From snow to ice to rain. From severe thunderstorms to howling winds to temperatures in the 50s. This nasty nor'easter was certainly a "multi-impact" storm, and we didn't even experience "the worst of the worst" here in New Jersey.

The brunt of the storm is over, as we're now on the drier side of the storm. But our impacts here aren't quite don't yet. We still have some more raindrops, snowflakes, wind gusts, and coastal flooding issues to talk about.

Then quiet weather settles in for all of 36 to 48 hours, before our next storm system arrives Wednesday night. That looks like a "rain to snow" event, with light accumulations possible.

Monday

After upwards of 6 inches of snow, 1.5 inches of rain, a 63 mph wind gust, and nickel-sized hail blew through New Jersey overnight, we're doing better now.

The broadest band of heaviest precipitation and strongest wind has moved on to the northeast. But we're still going to see several waves of showers both Monday morning and Monday afternoon. Early on, those showers will fall exclusively as rain, with temperatures still hovering in the 40s. But snow may mix in or become the predominant precipitation type later on, as temps drop. I wouldn't even rule out an additional coating of snow on the ground at some point, especially in colder North Jersey.

Meanwhile, it's going to stay breezy, if not windy, through Monday too. Westerly gusts may reach 30 mph (inland) or even 40 mph (coast). A Wind Advisory has been issued for southern and coastal New Jersey until 1 a.m. Tuesday morning.

The final coastal storm impact I need to mention is the coast. Those strong easterly winds overnight pushed a lot of water toward the Shore. Luckily, we were at low tide overnight, mitigating the potential for flooding. However, an extra foot or two of water is expected during Monday morning's high tide cycle, enough to cause minor to moderate category flooding. The Raritan Bayshore is the most precarious piece of the coastline - a Coastal Flood Warning is posted for the Middlesex and Monmouth county waterfronts.

Temperatures are slowly falling off Monday morning, from the 40s into the 30s. And we'll see thermometers settle around the upper 30s by late afternoon. (That's not a "high" temperature, as we hit 50-ish during the storm during the early morning hours.)

Clouds will finally start to part Monday night, and winds will only calm slightly. A freeze is likely for almost the entire state, with low temperatures in the 20s. So anything still wet will become icy overnight. And that breeze will add an extra bite to the cold air.

Tuesday

I'll be optimistic and call it a mostly sunny day. The morning hours will remain breezy, before calmer conditions prevail in the afternoon.

Tuesday temperatures will end up in the upper 30s. We are coming into the "dead of winter" now, the average coldest part of the calendar year. So that chilly day is only a hair below normal.

Wednesday

Shaping up to be the nicest weather of the week! (During the daytime hours, at least.)

Partly sunny skies, a light southwest breeze, dry weather (during the day), and high temperatures about 45 to 50 degrees. (As cool as 40-ish in far northern NJ.)

However, the pleasant, quiet weather will not last into Wednesday night. The arrival of a strong cold front will push in our next round of precipitation. At the moment, I'll say three things:
1.) It looks like a rain to snow event. Temperatures will decrease both due to nightfall and the arrival of a colder, drier air mass.
2.) The best chance for "rain to snow" will be central and southern New Jersey. Models paint North Jersey as too dry for substantial precip.
3.) Accumulations should be minimal. Maybe an inch. Cold fronts are not notorious snow bombs here in New Jersey.

We'll have to watch the timing of the rain/snow, in case it interferes with either the Wednesday evening or Thursday morning commute. Such travel impacts would be the worst-case scenario.

Thursday

After early morning snow showers wrap up, temperatures will take a big tumble starting Thursday. By the afternoon, we'll only see lower 30s. It will be blustery too, with a northwest wind gusting over 20 mph.

Thursday night into Friday morning, we'll probably bottom out in the teens across most of the state. Any little bit of wind would introduce painful wind chills too, of course.

The Extended Forecast

Friday should be quiet and cold, with highs only in the 20s. (The third time in two weeks we've had such frigid weather. Remember, no such days occurred in all of 2020 and 2021.)

The next time frame to watch for a more significant storm system would be over the weekend. The Euro model favors a "South Jersey special" snow storm Saturday morning. The GFS is tamer, but does show a close call.

You know how this works by now. Five days out, there are too many variables at play to make a definitive forecast call. It's worth watching, for sure. We'll continue to update and give more specific information as the week goes along.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.