NJ weather: Three potential storm systems in the next five days

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

Yes, there are not one, not two, but three potential storm systems aiming for New Jersey between now and the end of the weekend. Wednesday begins with dense fog — visibility will be below a quarter-mile in many spots throughout the morning, along with spotty drizzle and rain showers around. So it is going to be a damp, unsettled, and "blah" weather day overall with high temperatures generally in the 40s. We will dry out on Thursday, before our next chance of rain arrives on Friday. That one will be steadier and heavier. And with colder temperatures at onset, there will be a limited opportunity for icing Friday morning. The third storm system we are watching is a potential coastal storm for the Sunday time frame, which could bring accumulating snow to New Jersey. The ingredients are there, but the storm track is highly uncertain at this time.

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Wednesday NJ weather: Fog and spotty showers

Two good words to describe Wednesday's weather: Damp and blah.

Wednesday will not be a soaker of a weather day, but you might need the rain gear at times. The morning is starting with a blanket of fog over New Jersey. It is pretty thick, with visibility reported below a quarter-mile in spots which could slow you down. And the fog will linger for a few hours past sunrise — I would not expect clearer visibility until about midday Wednesday.

We have seen spotty drizzle and showers around New Jersey, which will also continue throughout Wednesday morning. The afternoon will trend drier, although skies will remain cloudy. And then we will probably see one more wholesale push of rain showers from the late afternoon to early evening hours. Total rainfall will likely range from a trace in South Jersey to about a quarter-inch in North Jersey.

Because of the wet and cloudy conditions, it will feel pretty raw and cool, even though temperatures will be seasonable. Look for highs between 40 and 50 degrees, from north to south in the afternoon.

As we dry out Wednesday evening, fog will be possible once again. Low temperatures will bottom out in the mid 30s. Not cold enough for a widespread flash freeze, although colder North Jersey could see some slippery spots by morning.

Overview of NJ's three upcoming storm systems. Wet, wet, and potentially wintry. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)

Thursday NJ weather: Drying out, lots of clouds

Thursday will fare better than Wednesday, although it will still be a dreary day with mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Temperatures will once again be stuck in the 40s. The daytime hours should stay dry.

Rain showers will likely come back into play Thursday night, especially to the south and west initially. By Friday morning, widespread wet weather will be possible once again.

Friday NJ weather: Steadier rain, limited icing

Likely the wettest day of the week. This time around, a half-inch to an inch of total rainfall is expected. Great news for our snow melt situation and drought status.

Periods of steady to heavy are likely throughout the day. I will stay the steadiest stuff looks to come through New Jersey in the morning, and we might enter a drying trend in the afternoon. There could even be a few rumbles of thunder along the way.

Meanwhile, it may be cold enough at onset early Friday morning in North Jersey only for some icy mix to develop — that is mainly sleet and freezing rain. As you might expect, that could lead to a slippery Friday AM commute. But any wintry weather will be limited in geography and in time. Once temperatures warm up by mid to late morning, any icy mix should warm up and transition to just plain rain.

Saturday NJ weather: One nice day

If you are looking for a day for outdoor activities, I think Saturday is your best bet. At the very least, it is the one day on which we might be able to last some warmer air bubbling up into New Jersey from the southwest.

With a mix of sun and clouds overhead, high temperatures should surge to around 50 degrees for most of the state.

Sunday NJ weather: Possible snow?

I started talking about this potential coastal storm a few days ago, in an effort to stave off growing social media hype. Last night, I was almost ready to go full snow on the forecast, as just about all model guidance converged on a wintry solution. But now, I am not so sure.

So here is where I stand. The ingredients are there. Cold air will be in place. A powerful storm will form nearby.

But it's all about the storm track. Will that storm come close enough to New Jersey to produce wintry impacts, including accumulating snow? Over the past few days, the spread of potential snowfall has literally ranged from nothing to 2 feet.

Latest model runs have the storm drifting south and east from the NJ coast. In other words, away from us. In other words, the forecast has trended much less snowy for New Jersey. For now.

However, because we are still seeing wild run-to-run swings and model-to-model variations, this remains a highly uncertain forecast. It's not a surprising problem — with two storm systems coming through before the potential snow storm, there are ample opportunities for "chaos theory" to totally throw a wrench in the works here.

So bottom line, I am not ready to hang my hat on a definitive "hit" versus "miss" call just yet. You know I play these things nice and slow and carefully. My response, for now, is to put a "chance" of snow in the forecast, and see how things develop over the next day. Once we are within 72 hours, I am hopeful there will be better clarity and better resolution about how Sunday will play out.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center