Coastal storm stays offshore, as NJ stays dry and seasonable

The Bottom Line

The offshore coastal storm we have been tracking all week is still over the open ocean. And while it will show some extra hints of its presence around New Jersey on Wednesday, the effects and impacts are still very minor here. Especially considering how stormy it would be right now if the storm tracked about 200 miles farther west. Sunshine will give way to clouds Wednesday, with a stiff breeze at times and a continuing threat of minor tidal flooding. It will be slightly cooler than Tuesday, by about 5 degrees. Bright sunshine returns Thursday, allowing temperatures to jump upward again. Friday will be a cooler day. The weekend looks dry and seasonable. All good news here. New Jersey’s next chance of rain is still at least a week away.

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Weather Hazards

A Coastal Flood Advisory continues Wednesday for points along the Jersey Shore. Minor flooding is expected at high tide, with the highest crest now expected either Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning before the offshore coastal storm pulls away. The surf is still rough too.

Climatological Context

October 21 is the 294th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 64 to 66 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 44 to 47 degrees.

October is, on average, New Jersey’s sixth warmest, sixth wettest, and seventh snowiest month of the year.

Wednesday

If I didn't mention there was a powerful coastal storm spinning over the Atlantic, you might not even know it was there. There will be some subtle impacts here in New Jersey Wednesday — clouds, a breeze, and minor coastal flooding. But by and large, this one will not be a big deal for New Jersey.

Once again, temperatures have dipped into the 40s across the vast majority of New Jersey Wednesday morning. It is seasonably chilly jacket weather, with dry, crisp air and light winds to start the day.

We have definitely reached that time of year when grabbing a jacket or sweatshirt before heading out the door is becoming automatic. Afternoons are a different story, depending on the exact temperature, amount of sunshine, wind speed, and your personal preferences I supposed.

Sunshine and blue sky will dominate through the morning. Then clouds will increase from the east from midday through the afternoon. It will turn breezy at times too, with top gusts at 20+ mph.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will hit about 60 to 65 degrees. That is about 5 degrees cooler than Tuesday.

And that is basically it.

It is amazing to think that if this offshore storm were positioned just 150 to 200 miles farther west, New Jersey could be dealing with clouds, rain, and significant wind. Instead, the forecast is almost smooth as butter.

The only meaningful impact from that coastal storm will continue along the Shore, where rough surf and minor tidal flooding concerns remain. The Wednesday afternoon high tide might be the highest of the week.

Even so, tidal guidance continues to favor only minor category flooding rather than anything more serious. Actual water levels have also been running somewhat below forecasts, thanks in part to a favorable north wind that is not shoving a tremendous amount of water directly toward the coast.

Scattered clouds will stick around Wednesday night. And temperatures will be cool yet again, with lows in the middle 40s.

Thursday

Sunshine returns Thursday, as temperatures flip back to the mild side.

As the coastal storm finally starts to exit stage right, rapidly flying out to sea, strong high pressure will build into the region. That means sinking air, clearing skies, dry weather, and a gradually calmer ocean.

Expect a breezy but bright day, with high temperatures jumping into the upper 60s. That will make Thursday one of the warmer days of this stretch and a bit above normal for late October.

The coastal flooding situation may still need one final look Thursday morning. In fact, that high tide cycle could be one of the highest of the week — close to Wednesday afternoon's crest.

Friday

Friday looks like the coolest day of the week. Still pleasant though.

Expect mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and highs in the upper 50s. That is below normal for this point in October, but still a fine fall day.

Let's call it crisp.

Saturday & Beyond

The weekend looks great. Finally, for the first time in months we will eke out a totally dry, problem-free weekend.

Saturday and Sunday should both feature sunny skies, dry weather, chilly mornings, and comfortable afternoons. High temperatures will reach the lower 60s both days.

Classic late-October weather.

The dry streak should continue through at least early next week. Long-range models do show the potential for showers around the middle of next week, but even that chance is limited. We may go through the rest of October without significant rain.

After persistently soggy and stormy weather dating back to mid-July? No complaints here!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.