Fantastic weather forecast for NJ’s final weekend of summer
Today looks great! Saturday looks great! Sunday looks great!
Monday it might rain.
And then Tuesday looks great!
This is a stretch of weather where you really don't need your friendly neighborhood meteorologist. I'm happy to report that we will close out summer with a truly terrific forecast.
Once again on this Friday morning, we are feeling some chilly temperatures. (When I got to work very early this morning, I saw my breath for the first time this season!) Most of the state has fallen into the 40s. Along the coast and in urban areas (where the ocean and concrete jungle insulate temperatures quite a bit), thermometers are in the 50s. But in NW NJ and the Pine Barrens, there are scattered 30s once again. Not quite record lows, but it's fair to call this unseasonably cool.
A warmup kicks in Friday, as northeasterly winds of the past few days have already become westerly. Based on model trends and observations, I've bumped my forecast temperatures down slightly — highs should reach the upper 70s for Friday afternoon. We'll enjoy plenty of sunshine, with scattered clouds. It will be another bone-dry weather day.
The Atlantic Ocean is still all churned up, so we have another high risk of rip currents posted for the Jersey Shore Friday. Ocean waves are still holding in the 4 to 6 foot range. I suspect things will calm a bit this weekend, but you'll want to use an abundance of caution in or near the ocean. (A friendly reminder that our Jersey Shore Report will continue to be published daily at 5 a.m. until the end of September!)
As dew points rise slightly, Friday night will not be as cool as the past two nights. Low temperatures will end up in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Both Saturday and Sunday will feature warm, dry weather with a mix of sun and clouds overnight. I'm seeing statewide high temperatures between 80 and 85 degrees for both days this weekend. (I suspect Sunday will be warmer than Saturday, by a degree or two.)
Changes arrive for the first day of autumn on Monday, as we turn cloudier and breezier. (The autumnal equinox officially occurs at 3:50 a.m. Monday.) I've been waffling about the timing of an approaching cold front, and guidance is now firmly leaning toward a later arrival. Therefore, Monday will still be warm, in the lower 80s one more day.
Our next chance of raindrops will come Monday late afternoon through Tuesday early morning. I've opted with a descriptor of scattered showers here. No models are showing anything heavy, and those batches of rain look pretty broken. It's possible that it doesn't necessarily rain everywhere in the state from this frontal passage.
As drier, cooler air returns on Tuesday we'll get another sunny, fall-like day. High temperatures will be limited to the mid 70s — seasonable for the first week of fall.
Clouds take over Wednesday, keeping temperatures at bay again in the mid 70s. Another warmup seems to be in the cards for late next week.
As time goes on, the chance of Hurricane Jerry threatening the U.S. East Coast is dwindling. It's not quite a fish storm though — the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda could be impacts by wind, rain, and/or heavy surf.