The Bottom Line

As high pressure builds from the west, sunny skies and warming temperatures will make for a couple of beautiful weather days across New Jersey. But our next storm system arrives on Friday, set to deliver both soaking rain and cooler air.

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Wednesday

Fall is in the air, as leaves change color and October charges along. We have officially flipped back to dry air and dry weather, making for a perfectly pleasant weather forecast for the next couple of days. Sunshine will win the sky Wednesday, with some passing clouds expected through the afternoon hours. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees — just a hair above normal for mid-October.

Wednesday night will be mostly clear, quiet, and comfortably cool. Most of NJ will dip into the lower to mid 50s, with some 40s in NW NJ.

Thursday

More bright sunshine. And we'll pick up a stiff southerly breeze, gusting occasionally above 20 mph. That will be a warming wind, pushing high temps into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon. Very nice — especially since this will likely be our last 70+ degree day for a while!

Clouds will begin to increase after sunset Thursday evening, but things should stay dry through daybreak.

Friday

Our next storm system, a slow-moving cold front, will arrive sometime on Friday. Note the italics. There are some big differences amongst our forecast models regarding the timing and moisture content of this next weathermaker.

The NAM in particular is out in left field, showing a warm Friday, a late arrival of light rain, and the possibility of accumulating snow in the Poconos (PA) and Catskills (NY). Yikes.

I think the GFS and Euro show a more reasonable solution, although it does contain another potential soaker. Periods of rain throughout Friday daytime and night would likely become heavy at times. Rainfall totals over an inch are possible. Temperatures wouldn't make it past the lower 60s.

So, for those who sprung a leak in their roof during Monday's heavy rain (like me), you'll definitely want to get that fixed by Friday.

Saturday

Rain may linger for a bit through about 8 a.m. Saturday, and then skies will clear to sunshine quickly. The rest of the weekend will be just cool. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to only reach about 60 degrees. Could be a "jacket weather all day" kind of situation.

Sunday & Beyond

Temperatures should recover to the lower to mid 60s on Sunday, with partly sunny skies and continuing dry weather. Another weak cold front is modeled to arrive on Monday, with minimal rain chances but a reinforcing shot of cool air. Highs will probably stay in the 60s (at best) for the foreseeable future.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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