The Bottom Line

This is a ‘Goldilocks’ forecast. Not too warm. Not too cold. Just right!

Temperatures finally return to normal mid-May levels over the next few days, primarily in the 70s. Sunshine will continue to dominate the sky, with high pollen, few clouds, and dry air.

We do have to talk about some shower chances in the coming days. But on Friday, it’s hardly worth mentioning given the dry air. Saturday’s stray raindrops don’t merit changing your plans just yet. Admittedly, I’m getting a bit nervous about wet weather invading the Garden State late Sunday into Monday.

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Thursday

Wednesday was so much fun, let’s do it again Thursday. With three big differences:

--Slightly Cooler Morning... Thanks to crystal clear skies, temperatures have really crashed Thursday morning. A surprising number of NJ towns (away from urban and coastal areas) have fallen into the 30s. You’ll definitely want a jacket throughout the morning.

--Slightly Warmer Afternoon... You can probably ditch that jacket Thursday afternoon, as thermometers soar to the 70 degree mark. A couple degrees warmer than Wednesday.

--Lighter Winds… Wednesday was (surprisingly) quite breezy at times. I expect calmer conditions going forward.

So, another beautiful, sunny spring day!

Thursday night looks good too, with clear skies and comfortably cool temperatures. We’ll bottom out in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees - noticeably warmer than the past few nights.

Friday

Mostly sunny skies and lower 70s will keep the pleasant weather going.

Most models paint some very spotty showers over New Jersey in the late afternoon and evening hours. But I’m not even mentioning it in my on-air forecast. With dew points only in the 30s, it’s going to be very difficult for raindrops to reach the ground in such a dry atmosphere. I expect some extra cloud cover, but that’s about it.

Saturday

Probably the warmest day of the week, as highs pop into the lower-mid 70s. Partly sunny skies and continuing light winds will make it a great day for any outdoor activities.

Once again, there will be an isolated shower chance Saturday afternoon. This time around, I would not be surprised to see a few raindrops somewhere in New Jersey. But since the vast majority of us will stay completely dry, I wouldn’t sweat or change plans at this time.

Sunday

Eh. Sunday will start nice enough. But I’m getting a bit nervous that rain will threaten western and southern New Jersey in the afternoon and evening hours.

As skies become mostly cloudy, and we add the rain possibility, high temperatures will scale back slightly to around the 70 degree mark.

My gut is telling me that most of Sunday will be reasonably pleasant. Just not as sunny and warm as Saturday. The rainfall doesn’t look all that widespread or heavy - I’d call it late-day scattered showers. Let’s see how the wet weather timing continues to develop.

Monday & Beyond

I’m leaning toward a not-very-nice day on Monday. Even though some models are pushing the steadiest rain south of New Jersey, there are signals pointing toward a damp and dreary day. Periods of rain and/or drizzle seem to be a good bet, with overcast skies. Temperatures will end up cooler as a result, only in the lower 60s.

The middle of next week features another warmup, even though clouds will battle sunshine overhead. I’m seeing a return to 70 on Tuesday. And 80 degrees will be a possibility as early as Wednesday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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