Sunny but windy Friday, as a fall chill settles in this weekend
OK, listen up... No complaining about Thursday's soaking rain! There was no flooding. There was no severe weather. It cooled us off from Wednesday's record-breaking heat. And we really needed some rain after a 6-week dry spell. Top rainfall totals were between a half-inch and an inch — not a ton, but every drop counts!
The rain is out of here now. But we have a new weather annoyance for Friday: wind.
You may find some patchy fog around the Garden State Friday morning, which should burn off quickly (by about 8 a.m. at the latest). It's going to be a bright and sunny, dry weather day. Temperatures will finally budge, after remaining stagnant for about 24 hours. We'll warm into the upper 60 to around 70 degrees by Friday early afternoon.
So far, so good. But a brisk northwesterly wind will kick up shortly after sunrise, sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to about 30 mph. Not strong enough to worry about damage, driving difficulties, etc. But it will add a blustery characteristic to the day.
Because of that cooling, drying wind, we'll probably hit our high temperature a little earlier than usual — in the 2 p.m. neighborhood. And then thermometers will start to crash through Friday evening. It's going to get quite chilly, with most low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s by Saturday morning.
Furthermore, if skies are clear enough and winds calm enough, we could see some upper 30s in NW NJ and the Pine Barrens. If the temperature dips to around 37 degrees for an hour or two, that's cold enough for some patchy frost. A Frost Advisory has been issued for western Passaic County — I wouldn't be surprised if that advisory is expanded farther west if temperatures trend cold enough.
Following a chilly start, I think it's fair to call Saturday a pleasantly cool autumn day. High temperatures will get stuck around 60 degrees — that is about 10 degrees below normal for early October. Skies will be mostly sunny, with some late-day clouds building in. Winds will be much lighter than Friday. And our air and weather look dry. (As long as you ignore the isolated showers on the NAM NEST model — I think the dry, sinking air wins out over any raindrop potential.)
On Sunday, temperatures bump to a more seasonable 70 degrees. It will feel quite a bit more humid too. Skies will turn mostly cloudy. And I can't rule out a few hit-or-miss rain showers. Models vary greatly in their rainfall depictions for Sunday, ranging from a widespread batch of scattered showers (NAM) to just a few isolated showers and sprinkles (GFS). If you have outdoor plans (as my family does), I recommend you be prepared to make a last-minute decision based on if/where raindrops may be falling on Sunday.
Our next significant storm system will be a cold front, set to arrive on Monday. That's going to send a slow-moving batch of soaking, steady rain through New Jersey. An inch or more of total rainfall looks likely, which would be fantastic for our mounting drought and fire danger concerns.
While that front will lead to a period of wet weather for New Jersey, there won't be dramatically colder air bottled up behind it. As skies slowly clear to sunshine on Tuesday, we'll see high temperatures near 70 degrees. Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be delightful dry autumn days, with seasonal high temperatures around the upper 60s.
Have yourself a great weekend!