One more beautiful weather day before severe storms return to NJ
How 'bout that weekend weather, huh?! Spectacular sunshine met lovely low humidity to make for one of the nicest weekends of the summer. We'll keep the beautiful, quiet weather going for one more day Monday, before things go downhill rapidly on Tuesday.
It is a delightfully refreshing Monday morning across the Garden State, as most thermometers have dipped into the 50s (except for coastal and urban areas). One important change about Monday will be warmer, more humid air flowing in from the southwest. That will push high temperatures into the mid to (maybe) upper 80s Monday afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny, until a few extra clouds come to visit late-day. Overall, a dry, warm, pleasant summer day!
Clouds will continue to increase Monday night. And it will feel pretty muggy — certainly not as cool as the past several nights. Low temperatures will only fall to around the 70 degree mark.
In a dramatic change of pace, Tuesday is going to get nasty. There could be a few isolated showers in the morning in North Jersey only. It's going to be breezy, humid, and very warm — high temperatures will range from the upper 70s (North) to upper 80s (South). That soupy air will potentially help fuel multiple rounds of gusty, soaking thunderstorms.
It looks like the first batch of widespread thunderstorms will arrive in New Jersey around Tuesday early afternoon (Noon), peaking in intensity around 3 p.m. We'll hopefully catch a relative lull in storms for Tuesday early evening (keeping fingers crossed for a trouble-free commute). Then another round of storms will push through the state Tuesday evening (6 p.m.) through early Wednesday morning.
So let's talk about our severe weather potential. All the ingredients are certainly coming together for severe wind (58+ mph) and very heavy rain (1+ inches) leading to flooding. (We'll put a finer point on the severe weather threats Tuesday morning.) In terms of the thunderstorm geography, because of hotter temperatures, the southern 1/2 to 2/3 of NJ (below Interstate 78) is most likely to experience hazardous weather.
Wednesday will be much quieter, although cloud cover will remain thick. And a few lingering rain showers are possible throughout the day too. High temperatures will end up around 80 degrees, with manageable humidity levels.
I think we'll see some breaks of sun on Thursday, especially away from the coast. If you can avoid a few spot showers, it will be a decent weather day with highs in the lower 80s.
We'll endure one more semi-unsettled day on Friday, with an isolated shower chance. Skies will be brighter, ranging from partly to mostly sunny. And temperatures will start to warm up again, reaching the lower to mid 80s.
The early preview of the weekend looks OK, but I am a bit hesitant to call it completely dry. High temperatures should reach the 80s across most of the state, with good sunshine.