The Bottom Line

This week’s weather forecast has been a challenge, to say the least. Models kept flip-flopping, especially with regards to the upcoming weekend. We’re now finally getting a more confident sense of what’s going to happen. And things are clearly trending in one direction: hot and humid!

A few showers and thunderstorms may creep into New Jersey this weekend too. But rain chances look pretty minimal - it certainly won’t be enough to help our fire danger threat and spiralling drought concerns.

I suspect beaches and boardwalks will be popular places to beat the heat this weekend. But keep in mind the ocean is still quite cool, there is an elevated risk of dangerous rip currents, and beaches are unguarded in the off-season.

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Friday

One more beautiful, bright, dry, warm, not-humid day to close out the workweek.

Temperatures are quite cool to start the day, in the 40s and 50s. But just like we’ve seen every day this week, come 8 or 9 a.m., those numbers will jump up rapidly thanks to sunshine and dry air.

Friday will look and feel very similar to Thursday, with temperatures probably a couple degrees warmer. Highs will range from the lower 70s along the coast to the lower 80s inland. With dew points in the 50s, the air will remain nice and comfortable.

Friday evening looks good. (I had previously predicted a shower chance, but it has since fizzled.) We’ll see partly cloudy skies overnight. And it won’t be as cool as recent nights, with lows in the lower 60s.

Saturday

Heat and humidity surge on Saturday, leading to a much sweatier, stickier, steamier weekend.

High temperatures push to 85 to 90 degrees across most of New Jersey Saturday. The dew point will come close to 60. The cool spot in the state will be along the Shore. Just how much cooler is up for debate - mainland beaches may still hit 80+ degrees at some point.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. And I do have to include the chance of a shower or thunderstorm between about 2 p.m. and Midnight. The spread of that rainfall varies, based on which forecast model you believe.

I’m leaning toward a “mainly dry” solution Saturday, for two reasons. First, even though our air will become humid, there may still be insufficient moisture to fuel substantial showers and storms. Second, it may be too hot for storms to pop. We call that “convective inhibition” or “the cap”.

Keep an eye on the sky, just in case. And keep cool!

Sunday

Breezy, hot, and humid. If I had to guess, Sunday will be slightly cooler but slightly more humid than Saturday. Still a summery day, with high temperatures again right in that 85 to 90 degree neighborhood. (Away from the oceanfront, of course.)

Again, a late-day shower or thunderstorm may creep into the Garden State, between about 6 p.m. and 2 a.m. This is associated with a frontal boundary that will put a rapid end to the heat and humidity.

Monday

Wow, what a difference. We swing a full 20 degrees cooler, stuck in the 60s Monday afternoon. Skies will probably stay mostly cloudy. And again, rain chances are minimal. Although if the aforementioned front stalls near NJ, there could be some rain. Best chance of raindrops would be South Jersey.

The Extended Forecast

The forecast for next week is all over the place. At the moment, I’m seeing a nice day Tuesday. Followed by another hot-n-humid day Wednesday, with late-day thunderstorms.

We’re still not ready to make a confident call at the weather for Memorial Day Weekend. But oh we are so ready for the unofficial start of summer and the beginning of Shore season!

Have a great weekend!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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