Here’s how accurate the Old Farmer’s Almanac is in NJ, so far 

Everyone knows that the accuracy of the Farmers’ Almanac—and its scrappy cousin, the Old Farmer’s Almanac—can be questionable, to say the least.

But in today’s world, with instant information at our fingertips, patience is practically extinct.

We’re so eager to know what the weather will be weeks or even months ahead that we’ll turn to any source, no matter how iffy the predictions might be.

The Farmers’ Almanac has been hanging around since 1818. It’s famous for its long-range weather forecasts, drawing on historical data, astronomy, and other bits of info to look months into the future.

Plus, readers love its gardening tips, cooking ideas, health articles, and even a planting and harvesting calendar.

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Some people might still be savoring summer’s heat, but others are craving that fall cool-down.

How long will New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania have to wait?

According to the Farmers’ Almanac, here’s the timeline for the first frost of fall 2024:

Toms River: October 15

Now, you may say, wow, that prediction was way off. It’s been so warm around here lately! But relatively speaking, October 15 was a pretty chilly day with a high only in the mid-50s. I don’t know about frost, but it’s very possible there was frost-ish that morning. So you may be thinking, “Wow, they’re not far off”

New Brunswick: October 20

It was the mid-50s, so there’s no way.

Cranford: October 25

OK, that was this past Friday, and it happened to be almost hot that day. So, in terms of the following two frost predictions, let’s not put money on them.

The Almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate. But let’s be honest—those of us who pay attention know that number’s probably padded.

Now, if you think the Farmers’ Almanac is a bit shaky, the Old Farmer’s Almanac takes things to another level.

But again, because we can’t wait for meteorologists to release their more scientific, reliable predictions, we’ll take what we can get.

So here’s what the Old Farmer’s Almanac has to say about the upcoming winter for the Atlantic Corridor (stretching along the East Coast through NY, PA, VA, and major cities like Boston and NYC):

Cold Factor? Not too bad! Winter temperatures will be average to slightly above, with a 2% dip in February. Cold snaps are expected in mid-December, early and late January, and late February.

Snow Factor? Precipitation will be a bit below normal, with less snow up north and more down south. Peak snowfalls are forecast for late December and late February.

Both almanacs, for what it’s worth, predict a milder winter than last year—which was one of the mildest on record.

Are we heading for winters in New Jersey that feel more like those in Northern California or the Pacific Northwest? Stay tuned.

But in the meantime, perhaps we should stick with listening to real meteorologists who know that snow can really only be predicted with any kind of accuracy about a week before.

Opinions expressed in the post above are those of New Jersey 101.5 talk show host Judi Franco only.

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