Winter Weather Advisory posted for NW NJ Sunday-Monday

A few inches of snow and ice may accumulate as a complicated storm system potentially brings light snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to the Garden State.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for northwestern New Jersey:
--Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties from 1 p.m. Sunday through 9 a.m. Monday
--Hunterdon and Somerset counties from 1 p.m. Sunday through 6 a.m. Monday
--Western Passaic county from 4 p.m. Sunday through 10 a.m. Monday

A Winter Weather Advisory means travel conditions may become difficult due to a combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. In New Jersey, they are generally issued when 3+ inches of snow accumulation is possible.

The National Weather Service estimates 1 to 3 inches of snow and a light glaze of ice will potentially fall and accumulate in the advisory area. Slightly higher amounts (4 to 5 inches) are possible in the higher elevation areas of Sussex and Passaic counties. Such a forecast range sounds reasonable to me, and matches well with what I've been promoting on-air. The advisory has an appropriately long time window, which I also agree with - the timing for this storm's impacts remains wishy-washy among the forecast models.

I call this storm complicated because of the progression of wintry weather it could drop. Temperatures will certainly be cold enough at the storm system's onset late Sunday to bring all snow to at least North Jersey. An influx of warmer air on Monday morning will cause precipitation to change to all rain at some point. Exactly when that transition happens and how heavy the precipitation is before transition time will directly impact how much snow/sleet falls and accumulates.

For now, just keep in mind that travel conditions may deteriorate Sunday as this storm system arrives - and not necessarily just in North Jersey.

Also, keep in mind, it's just an advisory, not a warning - this is not expected to be a major winter storm.

I'll post a more complete analysis in a special weather blog post Sunday morning. Until then, stay warm!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.