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What Will The Winter Be Like In New Jersey?

Experts are warning we’ve had above-average rainfall over the past month, which could lead to flooding troubles in the coming weeks.

Snow in Toms River
Townsquare Media

Dave Robinson, New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers, says, “Given the active weather pattern we’ve been in for the last week or two, and given the time of year where evaporation rates are very low, we’re pretty wet – we’ve got a flood threat should we get several inches of liquid out of this very active late December pattern.”

He says we shouldn’t expect much of a snow pack going into this time of the year- this is when it starts developing up in the higher elevations of Northern New Jersey and sometimes into the lower elevations, “but with any heavy precipitation at this time of the year – particularly how wet it’s been the last several weeks – there is the threat of flooding – should the rain come down too fast, or should a combination of snow-melt and rainfall occur.”

Robinson points out, “There’s no forecast of exceeding amounts of precipitation in the 4 or 5, 6 inch range which gives all kinds of problems, but even right now an inch and a half, two inches of rain can bring some streams and some rivers out of their banks- and become more of a nuisance in flooding with transportation…it’s certainly something we have to look at during this time of year.”

He also says while it’s been wet and rainy lately, we’re not able to predict what conditions will be more than a week to 10 days in the future, “particularly in a winter when there’s no strong signal from El Nino or La Nina in the tropical Pacific.”

So what will the weather be like in January and February? Robinson says at this point the only thing we know is,”It’s going to get cold as we get into next week – that’s a better lock than what’s going to happen say in terms of precipitation…but as we go further into January and beyond, all bets are off at this point.”

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