November-like chilly temperatures in NJ this weekend, flurries possible
The coldest air of the season is expected to arrive Saturday, bringing chilly temperatures and the first widespread frost of the season to New Jersey.
Here are your weather headlines for Friday, October 16, 2015...
Friday: Not Bad
A band of rain is tracking ahead of a weak cold front this morning, so a few showers will potentially pass through New Jersey. Additionally, models are showing the development of widely scattered showers and sprinkles this afternoon, and so the chance for a light shower will linger throughout the day.
If you ignore these slight rain chances, your Friday is looking pretty good for mid-October. Mostly sunny skies will be accompanied by a stiff westerly breeze, up to 20 mph. High temperatures across the Garden State should be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday, in the upper 60s.
Saturday: Turning Colder
Another cold front on Saturday morning will cause temperatures to take a significant tumble this weekend. Temperatures will be more reminiscent of late November than the middle of October (think typical Thanksgiving weather).A brisk wind from the northwest may gust to 30 or even 40 mph on Saturday. That wind will deliver cooler air to New Jersey, as afternoon high temperatures will be limited to the upper 50s on Saturday.
Sunday: AM Frost, PM Flurries?
Sunday morning will almost certainly be our first widespread frost of the season for most (if not all) inland areas of New Jersey. Frost forms when cold air pools at the bottom few inches of the atmosphere (just above the ground), causing tiny ice crystals to form on grass, leaves, etc. Frost does NOT require sub-freezing temperatures... Generally we use 37° as the benchmark for frost formation.
The coldest areas of the state (northwestern New Jersey and the Pine Barrens) may drop to 30° or 31° on Sunday morning, enacting the first freeze of the season.
The core of this cold air mass will be directly overhead on Sunday, so temperatures will struggle to reach 50° by the afternoon, despite mostly to partly sunny skies. The brisk wind will continue on Sunday as well, contributing to an overall blustery, chilly day.
In addition, a weak disturbance is expected to pass across southern New York and northern Pennsylvania from Sunday evening through early Monday morning. Parts of Upstate New York are expected to see a few inches of snow accumulation, but that will not be the case here in New Jersey. The glancing blow from this system might be enough to produce some sprinkles or, if temperatures are cold enough, a few flurries. As I mentioned yesterday, there is no reason to make a run on the grocery store to stock up on bread, milk, eggs, etc... It's just a few snowflakes, folks! The best chance of seeing those flurries will be in the higher elevations of North Jersey, but I wouldn't rule it out for anyone in the state Sunday evening.
Next Week
Monday morning is expected to be just as cold as Sunday morning, if not a few degrees cooler. And Monday afternoon's temperatures won't warm up much either, with highs only in the lower 50s. (At least the incredibly dry air will keep skies sunny.) On Tuesday, warmer air will cause high temperatures to return to the 60s. By Wednesday and Thursday, we could very well see 70s on the temperature map again. No major storm systems are in the forecast through next week.
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