NJ weather: Soggy weather continues to start the week
Congratulations, South Jersey. After picking up just over an inch of steady rain Sunday, Atlantic City International Airport is now in the midst of its wettest September on record &mdash 7.47 inches as of Midnight, and counting. Yes, there's more rain on the way, even for central and northern New Jersey which had a mostly dry weekend.
The culprit for this soggy weather is a stationary front draped across southern New Jersey. That atmospheric boundary serves as an expressway for storm systems to constantly "drive" along. Hence, the persistent rain.
As the sun rises on the first Monday of autumn, we've got two changes on the way. First, that boundary will become unstationary, slowly lifting northward as a warm front. In addition, the radar shows a break in the rain to the west.
So Monday looks drier overall. In South Jersey, steady rain will transition to just scattered showers by Monday late morning. For central and northern NJ, widely scattered showers will arrive through the afternoon hours. Admit the smattering of raindrops, it will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and cool. Just like Sunday, high temperatures will be limited to the mid to upper 60s.
That wind is important too. It's coming from the east, which we call "on-shore flow". With gusts as high as 25 mph, the ocean is going to get churned up a bit. A high risk of rip currents and rough surf has been posted for the entire Jersey Shore Monday. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory cautions of minor flooding of tidal waterways around the times of high tide.
With our friendly front still in the neighborhood and stronger atmospheric impulses aiming for New Jersey, Tuesday looks like a particularly wet day for the entire state. Periods of steady rain are likely all day, with heavy rain probable. As winds turn from easterly to southerly, temperatures will warm into the 70s.
By the time you wake up Wednesday morning, the rain will be gone! Most of Wednesday looks partly sunny, warm, and humid with high temperatures entering the 80s. However, a strong cold front is expected to drive one more round of thunderstorms through New Jersey sometime between about 2 p.m. and 2 a.m. (We'll narrow down that timing further as it gets closer.) Heavy rain and severe weather are good possibilities.
Beyond that front, I'd like to say that we'll have an extended stretch of beautiful early autumn weather. However, both the GFS and Euro models stall the front right over the Jersey Shore, potentially keeping lingering showers in the forecast for Thursday and early Friday? I don't buy the full-on stall — the extended rainfall is a new wrinkle in this forecast, and I think the forward momentum of the front will be enough to carry it well off-shore. Still something to watch.
So, worst-case scenario, we only get to taste pleasant sunny weather for late Friday into Saturday. Best-case, the forecast for Thursday through early Sunday could turn out pretty nicely. Again, I promise there will be a payoff to the soggy first half of the week!