NJ forecast toes the line: Mild, quiet weather to continue
Temperatures will slowly warm Tuesday and Wednesday, with no arctic blasts or major storms on the horizon.
As we count down the final days of November, I still have a quiet weather forecast for you. We'll see a little warmup, a little cooldown, and a little rain chance through the end of the month.
Tuesday morning is pretty cold across New Jersey. Scattered 20s, mostly 30s, and 40s right along the coast. Definitely a jacket or sweater kind of morning. A compact bank of clouds will move over the Garden State through about 8 a.m., but the rest of the day will feature plenty of sunshine.
The combination of sunny skies and light southerly winds will push Tuesday's high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than Monday. Thermometers should climb into the lower 50s in far NW NJ, mid 50s for the rest of North Jersey, and upper 50s for South Jersey. That's a bit above normal — in other words, we've got a formula for a pleasant late November day in New Jersey!
More good news in Tuesday night's forecast too — it's really not going to get that cold. While the higher elevations to the northwest may dip into the 30s, most of the state will bottom out in the lower to mid 40s. I suspect most (if not all) of the state will stay well above the frost and freeze points overnight. Skies will remain mostly clear.
Wednesday looks to be the "weather winner of the week," thanks to the warmest temperatures of the week. Highs will range from about 55 to 60 degrees. I can't really call that "warm," so I'm stick with "mild" — it's about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Sunshine will continue to dominate the sky, although a few fair-weather clouds may creep into view at times. Wednesday will be breezy, with potential gusts to about 20+ mph.
Our weather turns downhill again on Thursday, as cooler air and clouds return. Skies will become mostly cloudy by mid-morning Thursday, limiting high temps to about 50 degrees. Typical for late November, but noticeably cooler than Tuesday and Wednesday.
The next storm system of note — a cold front — will approach late Thursday into early Friday. Here are my latest thoughts regarding this weather-maker:
--Weather impacts for New Jersey will be largely insignificant.
--A sprinkle will be possible as early as Thursday mid-afternoon.
--Then we'll see a better chance for scattered showers between about Midnight and 8 a.m. Friday.
--The coldest temperatures in the state during this period will be in the upper 30s (NW NJ), so I think it's safe to continue an "all rain" forecast.
--Rainfall totals will be very light, up to a tenth of an inch in North Jersey.
The early look at the weekend shows seasonable temperatures around 50 degrees, with more clouds than sun. Another chance for rain arrives late Saturday to early Sunday. This one bears watching for two reasons: 1.) Temperatures may be cold enough for some snowflakes in North Jersey. 2.) Models show this storm "bombing out" (strengthening) after the storm exits the coast — if that happens earlier or further west, it could lead to heavier, more significant weather impacts for New Jersey.