Another NJ Flash Flood Watch, as ‘rain train’ returns Wednesday
For the past several days, I've been promoting Wednesday as "the wettest day of the week," and it looks like that's going to come true. We've already seen several bands of rain moving through the state early Wednesday morning, and more raindrops are on the way.
Is it going to rain all day? No way.
Is it going to rain everywhere? Probably.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will push through the Garden State throughout Wednesday, with the most widespread rainfall expected arriving Wednesday afternoon. 24-hour rainfall totals are forecast to reach about an inch for most of the state, with locally higher amounts.
It is those "locally higher amounts" due to pockets of steadier, heavier rainfall that we're worried about. The ground is pretty thoroughly saturated in spots, so flash flooding is a reasonable concern. Rainfall rates may exceed an inch per hour, which could easily lead to flooding of low-lying and/or poor-drainage areas. Ponding on roadways could make driving conditions difficult at any point in time.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for 13 counties in New Jersey until 5 a.m. Tuesday: Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren. If a warning is issued for your area, you'll know it immediately — that's urgent enough to set off your cell phone's "Wireless Emergency Alert".
It looks like the steadiest rain of the day will actually push through the state Wednesday evening, before things calm down during the overnight hours. The rain will not offer a break in the humidity. Overnight low temperatures will only fall into the lower 70s. Mmmm... Steamy.
A few showers are probably on Thursday, mainly (but not exclusively) in the morning. Otherwise, I think we'll see a period of partly sunny skies, especially Thursday afternoon. That will push high temperatures back into the seasonable mid 80s.
I'm fairly confident that Friday will stay dry for most of the day. It will be hot and humid, with high temps in the upper 80s. (90 is a possibility.) We'll see a mix of sun and clouds.
The next batch of rain will arrive Friday night through early Saturday morning, as a cold front passes across the Garden State. However, models have really backed off on the intensity and spread of this rain, so it's just going to be "a little bit wet".
I'm still favoring a stretch of dry weather taking over for the weekend. Hopefully that front will kick some of our humidity to the curb too.
Saturday will start with a few showers in the neighborhood, then we'll get breaks of sunshine through the afternoon. With high temperatures between about 85 and 90 degrees, it should be a pretty pleasant summer day.
And Sunday looks good too. We'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies, and high temps again about 85 to 90.
By Monday morning, our weather setup will transition back to a sob-fest. I have a sneaking suspicion that scattered showers, thunderstorms, and oppressive humidity will once again become popular for most of next week.